The 2024 U.S. Presidential election, with Donald Trump’s victory, brings implications for global markets, particularly how the U.S. economy interacts with international trade, investment, and commodity prices. Given Trump’s well-known pro-business and nationalist stance, his policies could significantly influence financial markets worldwide, especially impacting oil prices and foreign exchange (FX) dynamics in oil-exporting and emerging economies.
These shifts in global market conditions can be pivotal for Nigeria, a major oil-exporting nation with a high reliance on U.S. dollars in its trade and foreign reserves. The Nigerian economy is sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates, which affect the Naira, the cost of imports, inflation, and general economic stability. As Trump’s policies unfold, Nigeria could see a complex mix of benefits and challenges, driven largely by potential changes in FX rates and oil prices.
Winners – Benefiting from FX Impacts under Trump’s Victory
While Trump’s victory could challenge oil prices in the medium term, some segments of the Nigerian economy may still benefit from FX dynamics under a stronger U.S. dollar. Key winners include Nigerian households receiving U.S. dollar remittances, as well as dollarized businesses and investors who stand to gain from dollar appreciation.
Nigerians Receiving U.S. Dollar Remittances
Trump’s likely pro-dollar stance could strengthen the U.S. dollar relative to emerging market currencies, including the Naira. This situation could prove advantageous for Nigerians with family members in the U.S. sending remittances. A stronger dollar increases the value of remittances in Naira terms, giving recipients more purchasing power in Nigeria, where inflation remains a concern. This added financial support could help households cover rising costs of goods and services and potentially offset some adverse economic impacts.
Dollarized Nigerian Businesses and Investors
Nigerian businesses and investors holding dollar-denominated reserves or assets would see their value rise in Naira terms if the dollar appreciates. For companies operating with significant dollar holdings or involved in dollar-based transactions, this could offer additional purchasing power or better leverage in FX-related negotiations. Similarly, for investors, dollar assets gaining value relative to the Naira provide a protective hedge against local currency devaluation. This advantage may also create an opportunity to acquire Naira-based assets at a lower effective cost, helping dollarized businesses maintain resilience amid currency volatility.
Losers - Adverse FX Effects of Trump’s Victory
The prospect of a U.S. oil supply glut under Trump’s policies would add to the medium-term challenges facing Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy. Lower oil prices, combined with a stronger dollar, could create a difficult environment for Nigerian businesses reliant on imports, as well as for the government and private sector managing dollar-denominated debt.
Nigerian Oil and Gas Exporters
In the short term, U.S. oil-friendly policies could stabilize oil prices, offering temporary relief to exporters. However, as Trump’s pro-oil agenda stimulates U.S. production, the risk of oversupply becomes a growing concern, potentially leading to a price drop in the medium term. For Nigeria, lower oil prices reduce revenue from oil exports, limiting FX earnings and potentially straining the national budget, which is heavily reliant on oil revenue. This revenue decline could further reduce Nigeria’s ability to manage FX reserves, placing additional pressure on the Naira and amplifying inflationary challenges. Reduced oil income may also impact government spending, potentially affecting infrastructure and other programs that are reliant on oil revenue.
Import-Dependent Nigerian Businesses
A stronger dollar also raises the cost of imports for Nigerian businesses. Companies heavily reliant on imported goods and materials would see rising costs, putting pressure on profit margins and, in many cases, leading to higher prices for Nigerian consumers. This situation could contribute to inflation, especially in essential goods, creating additional challenges for businesses already managing high operational costs. Import-dependent sectors may have to explore local alternatives or streamline their operations to manage escalating import expenses.
The Naira and Nigeria’s Forex Reserves
Should Trump’s policies make the U.S. a more attractive investment destination, this could draw capital away from emerging markets, further strengthening the dollar while weakening the Naira. Nigeria’s forex reserves could come under pressure as the CBN works to stabilise the Naira amid diminishing FX inflows. The combination of lower oil prices and reduced FX liquidity from investment inflows can strain Nigeria’s economic resilience. A weakened Naira may lead to inflationary pressures, making imports more expensive and affecting the overall cost of living for Nigerian consumers.
Nigerian Borrowers with Dollar-Denominated Debt
A stronger dollar would increase the cost of servicing dollar-denominated debts, creating financial strain on Nigerian companies and government bodies holding such obligations. Rising debt repayments in Naira terms could reduce funds available for local investment or expansion, adding financial pressure to Nigeria’s already stretched fiscal budget. This debt burden is particularly concerning for businesses that rely on dollar-based financing or operate in FX-intensive sectors, where exchange rate fluctuations can severely impact profitability.
Conclusion
The US election cycle brings with it a certain amount of volatility in the marketplace, particularly where the outcome is largely uncertain before the voting takes place and the candidates have materially different takes on the key policy issues. The November 2024 elections and the victory of President Donald Trump fit this profile. Given the Victor's known stance on prioritizing American businesses and his views on fossil fuels, there is a reasonable expectation that his policies will result in increased investment - Stateside, into the fossil fuels industry. Whilst this may have a short-term advantage for service providers in the sector, the almost inevitable oversupply in the global market could see depressed prices over much of the next 4 years. This will no doubt cheer domestic consumers in the US, however for mono-product economies like Nigeria, there could be some headwinds in the next 12 to 15 months on account of this.
